Ukraine’s Agricultural Outlook: Growth Amid Uncertainty
Ukraine's agriculture persists amid war, showing potential for growth with optimistic export projections and crop production despite challenges
Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine's agricultural sector remains resilient, continuing to produce and export goods. In the 2024/2025 season, agricultural exports reached USD 11 billion, driven by corn, wheat, barley, and soybeans. For the 2025/2026 season, Ukraine plans to plant 23 million hectares, with shifts in crop patterns favoring corn over soybeans. Experts project a 3.4% increase in crop production, reaching 60 million tons. Sunflowers remain the most profitable crop. While some crops, like sugar beets and fruits, will decline, Ukraine's agricultural sector remains vital to its economy and global market.
Even with the devastation of the ongoing war, Ukraine’s agriculture is managing to hold its ground. Yes, the country has lost territory, infrastructure is in ruins, and the labor force has been severely impacted—but the sector is still producing and exporting. It’s a tough situation, but the fact that Ukraine continues to push through these challenges gives a glimpse of hope. When the war finally ends and the rebuilding begins, agriculture could be one of the key drivers of recovery, especially if the infrastructure is restored and people return to work. Despite everything, Ukraine’s ability to keep going under such dire conditions shows that there’s still potential for growth and renewal once peace returns.
In the 2024/2025 season, Ukraine's agricultural exports totaled $11 billion, marking a USD 1.3 billion increase compared to the previous year, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association. This growth was driven by higher exports of corn, wheat, barley, and soybeans, although the value of sunflower exports saw a significant drop, falling by 2.5 times.
Looking ahead to the 2025/2026 season, much of Ukraine's export outlook will depend on the yield of spring crops, which have already begun being planted. The total area under crops in 2025 is expected to stay at 23 million hectares, the same as the previous season. There are expected shifts in crop planting patterns, with a decrease in soybean acreage and an increase in corn planting. Despite these changes, the areas dedicated to wheat and sunflower are likely to remain stable.
For the 2025 season, 11.07 million hectares, or 48% of the total area, will be planted with grain crops. Of this, 4.15 million hectares will be dedicated to corn, 790,000 hectares to spring barley, and 222,700 hectares to spring wheat. Other grains, like peas, oats, buckwheat, and millet, will cover 550,000 hectares. Oilseeds will make up 8.9 million hectares (38.7% of the total area), with sunflowers taking up 5.17 million hectares as the main crop, followed by soybeans and rapeseed.
Experts are cautiously optimistic about the 2025 harvest. Projections point to a 3.4% increase in Ukraine's crop production compared to 2024, mainly driven by higher yields of grains and legumes. Total production is expected to reach 60 million tons, marking a 7.6% increase from the previous year. However, production of winter grains like winter wheat, rye, and winter barley is expected to drop by 6.9%. On the other hand, spring cereals such as corn and millet are expected to see strong growth, with corn production projected to rise by 23.5%.
Ukraine is also expected to see modest increases in sunflower and soybean production, with growth projected at 2-3%. There's also an anticipated rise in the production of potatoes (up 4.2%), vegetables (up 5.3%), melons (up 10.7%), and grapes (up 5.0%). However, sugar beet and fruit production are forecasted to decline, with reductions of 2.6% and 6.6%, respectively.
Sunflower Rules
In terms of profitability, sunflower continues to be the most lucrative crop in Ukraine, with a profitability rate of 106% and a net profit of nearly UAH 40,000 (around USD 1,000) per hectare. Rapeseed follows closely behind, and corn ranks third in profitability. The area planted with soybeans, which hit a record high of 2.6 million hectares in 2024, is expected to drop to 1.8 million hectares in 2025, with the freed-up land being redirected toward sunflowers and corn.
These projections suggest that Ukraine’s agricultural sector will remain a key player in the global market. While challenges persist, especially around weather patterns and international demand, Ukraine is expected to meet its domestic food needs and maintain its export potential.